Sunday, June 26, 2011

Unawarness of Positive Black Swans

I ran a Google search for the phrase "Black Swan" to see what bloggers and analysts are saying about Black Swans, each and every one of the results was about the negative ones: market crash, crisis, downtrend... No wonder people hardly know about positive Black Swans.

Nassim Taleb mentioned briefly positive Black Swans trading in his book, here are some quotes

"There are both positive and negative Black Swans.William Goldman was involved in the movies, a positive-Black Swan business. Uncertainty did occasionally pay off there."


and

"Aside from the movies, examples of positive-Black Swan businesses are: some segments of publishing, scientific research, and venture capital. In these businesses, you lose small to make big."


My strategy isn't about "positive Black Swan businesses" but about "Positive Black Swan Practices".

and

"You have little to lose per book and, for completely unexpected reasons, any given book might take off. The downside is small and easily controlled."


similarly to my portfolio you have little to lose per stock but for some reason one them might take off, just like happened last year with INSM.

"In these businesses you are lucky if you don't know anything—particularly if others don't know anything either, but aren't aware of it."


Mr Taleb speaks most of the time about practices that would greatly hurt the economy, he warns the world of the disasters that would happen if we continue to take big risks, but the Negative Black Swans are not the full story of the Black Swan.
Despite the brief paragraphs in the book, I developed deep and advanced understanding of Positive Black Swans.

Mr Taleb speaks most of the time about practices that would greatly hurt the economy, but that is not the full story of the Black Swan.

I picked the above quotes for people who didn't get absolutely anything about my strategy, as important as it is people don't seem to appreciate much of it.

I think it is very important for the Economy to identify it's fragile points and work on them to be less in the way of Negative Black Swans, I believe it is of equal importance for the Economy to identify the opportunities of big growth and be more in the way of Positive Black Swans.

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